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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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