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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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