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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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