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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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