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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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