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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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