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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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