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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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