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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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