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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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