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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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