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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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