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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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