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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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