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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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