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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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