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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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