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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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