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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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