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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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