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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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