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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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