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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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