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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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