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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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