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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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