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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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