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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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