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Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
 Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newcastle coal future has fallen by almost 50% since the start of 2023 to $196.5/t.
There are a number of reasons for these declines in the two benchmarks, but the main one is competition from natural gas prices, which have reached levels below €50/MW, currently standing at €47.70/MW and down more than 59% since the start of the year. Indicative of this situation, the clean dark spread in Germany, which measures the difference between the wholesale price of electricity and the cost of the coal used to generate that electricity, has reached a multi-year low of -€18.77/MWh, implying that it is not profitable to use coal. Another reason for the fall in prices is the weather. The winter has been milder than expected in both Europe and Japan, meaning that less coal has been used for heating. Although colder weeks are expected, the end of the winter is near. The milder winter is also reflected in the ARA region inventories, which are now almost double the level of a year ago.
Looking at seaborne trade, the EU and UK imported 84.3 Mt of thermal coal in Jan-Nov 2023, 4.6 Mt more (+5.7%) than in the same period last year, while coking coal imports were 29.7 Mt, 8.1% lower than last year. The trade is solid, but the routes have changed. Russia is no longer the top supplier of coking coal, with its share falling from 68% in 2021 to just 4% in 2022. Other countries such as Colombia, the United States, South Africa, Australia and Indonesia have stepped up, increasing the distance travelled to reach Europe.
Although Europe has dumped Russia as a major supplier of coal, Russia has managed to sell it elsewhere. China, for example, bought both thermal and met coal from Russia, benefiting from discounts. In general, China significantly reduced its coal imports by -41 Mt (-15% y-o-y), due to increased Chinese production and some government price controls to limit import demand. Besides China, other countries such as India, Turkey and South Korea were the main destinations for Russian coal.
Looking ahead, the decline in the coal price since the beginning of the year has been significant and it is worth looking at some of the factors that can move the price of coal. First and foremost, the war in Ukraine has the potential to keep supply and demand tight in the near term. If the war continues to rage and coal importers stay away from Russian coal, tone-mile demand is likely to rise, which can further boost the dry bulk market. The same applies if gas prices rise again and coal becomes the fuel of choice for power generation. In fact, the front-year clean dark spread is expected to reach +18.77/MWh, meaning that coal will become more profitable to burn for power generation, thus increasing demand for it.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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