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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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