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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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