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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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