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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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