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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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