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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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