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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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