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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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