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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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