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Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. The G7, along with the EU are trying different ways to put more pressure on Russia’s budget, targeting this time the fuel exports like diesel and naphtha.
This time, the ban will be different, and it is expected to be a lot more complicated than the one regarding oil. There are going to be two caps, one for the products that are being traded lower than the crude oil and one for those that are being traded higher, with the exact price still to be decided.
Regarding Europe, the bloc will have to find alternatives to the Russian supplies which is around 1mbd with almost 0.5mbd being diesel. Thus, it expected that the trade for such fuels, being transported with smaller vessels (MR/LR) to increase and possibly the freight to follow.
Regarding whom supplies the EU with fuel, the bloc imported 220mbd for diesel-type products in 2022 from Russia. The 1mbd of products deficit will most probably be covered by Middle East, India, and the US, with Abhu Dhabi National Oil Co. already dealing to supply Germany with diesel. Additionally, another player that will play a major role in the availability of oil products is China and their policies regarding refining and exports will shape the trade, by either freeing up cargoes for Europe or sending fuels directly to the EU.
Another factor that will play a major role in the prices of products is where Russia will redirect its exports and if they can find enough non-EU buyers. Most probably, the exports will be heading to Latin America countries and Africa. Moreover, since both China and India have big refining industries, the trade becomes a lot more complex and different as Russia will be competing with them for exports.
From Russia’s perspective, the capping of oil products will be more painful than the one in crude oil, since oil producers did not have real problems finding either vessels or buyers to transport and import Russian crude. Although Russian crude is being sold in discount and high rates squeeze the profit margins, increasing the overall export of crude to compensate for the products, is a possibility. What this means is that tankers like Suezmax, VLCC and Aframax vessels may see an increase in demand as Russia is increasing its oil output and exports. The logistics of the crude oil trade are considered a lot simpler than that of products and large crude tankers can reach Russia’s clients more easily than smaller product vessels.
From a shipping perspective, it is worth watching closely how the trade unfolds from now on. As we mentioned earlier, the US and Middles East will be the new suppliers of Europe and thus, it is expected for these routes to increase in value and consequently push rates higher. The same is expected for the trades between Russia and Africa or Latin America. We can understand that LR1 and LR2 vessels will see a rise in the demand after the ban kicks in on Feb.5. If the assumption that Russia will increase crude oil exports, proves correct in the following months, we can expect the same to happen with larger crude carriers, provided that the Russian benchmark keeps selling at a discount.
By Fotis Kanatas
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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