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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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