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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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