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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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