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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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