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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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