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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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