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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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