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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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