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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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