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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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