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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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