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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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