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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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