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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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