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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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