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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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