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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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